Hello everyone. I am back in the blogging business. I had some reasons for stopping last year, and in hindsight, it was a bad decision for me. When you are asked to change something you believe is an important behavior, you should ask yourself, “Who benefits?” In this case, it was not me.
I am going to kick this year off by making some predictions. This is probably the most important thing for anyone who has ambitious goals for the future because the best way to predict the future is to create it.
That being said, I have read about a dozen “predictions” for 2026. And almost all of them are boring and obvious. What is stopping people from making big, bold bets? Probably the same thing that kills a large swath of startups every year: Risk aversion.
We can debate that in the inevitable LinkedIn comments, since as a fractional CTO, I just offended half of my potential employers and customers. Although if you are talking to me about helping your business, you are clearly in the other half of the leaders, right?
Enough pillow talk.
Let’s make some crazy predictions!
In 2026, we will see:
- A billion-dollar company’s valuation decreased by 30% due to issues using LLMs (compliance violations or data corruption).
- The release of a mass-market AR device, which will reach 4m users before EOY. I should caveat this one, because I want this to happen very badly. I have a steak dinner in SF riding on its outcome. If I get this one wrong, it is because the powers-that-be want to see me take someone out to dinner. Possibly two, because I have a double-or-nothing on the bet due to another prediction for 2026 that is audacious, and perhaps will not happen until 2027.
- Two. Billion. Dollars… Of mobile publisher consolidation as the red ocean accelerates in a winner-take-all market.
- The job market retreat will slow and even stop. Jobs will come roaring back, due to AI, and the need to shepherd and grow the LLM-features-to-customer market.
- Sovereign LLMs and on-prem deployments will cause valuation shifts in the big AI LLM providers, due to the first point, and general cost management. The LLM provider counterattack will be in these companies selling LLMUaaS; LLM Updates as a service, and they will have a haven in Docker-style models with a support contract for updates.
Phew!
I am going to stop there. I only made half as many as a top ten list. But these are meaty, and they pack twice as much of a punch.
Stay tuned for next week.
I am going to make some announcements about products and services for engineering leaders who have 2026 problems.
First up: How to hire in the age of AI.
